factors which could alter observed patterns of
considers a number of variables including at-
use in the foreseeable future, normally a five-
tractiveness of the recreation area, population,
year interval. Adjust the rate of change to re-
character of the community, economic level of
flect the influence of these factors.
the community, and travel distance to the rec-
(2) Demand estimates. Once the expected
reation area. The accuracy of models and for-
rate of change for each outdoor recreation ac-
mulas depends upon the accuracy of detailed
tivity has been established, estimate future vis-
information and, often, subjective observation.
itation for all existing and proposed facilities in
(4) Surveys. Surveys provide not only fac-
the market area. Make estimates by one of two
tual data, but also data concerning the recrea-
principle methods.
tion experience. Surveys particularly provide the
(a) For activities with a previous record
opportunity for recreation participants to ex-
press the desire for new and different activities.
of use, extrapolate current use figures by a given
percent (based on the rate of change) per year
Surveys of the installation population can be
to the end of the planning period. As an exam-
made in the form of self-administered question-
ple, Fort U. S., a hypothetical installation, is
naires, personal and telephone interviews, or field
evaluating demand for camping. Use data for
observations. However, because surveys depend
on human response, they require skill in both
camping in the installation's market area indi-
cates that, five years ago, visitation amounted
preparation and administration to extract ac-
to 117,000 visits (or visitors) per year. Camping
curate information. They also require skill in
visitation in the last calendar year, however, was
evaluation to assure appropriate conclusions are
236,000 visits or an increase of 102 percent over
drawn. The Army MWR survey results from in-
visitation five years ago. This increase is equiv-
stallation, major command and army-wide lev-
alent to an average increase of about 20 percent
els, available from the installation MWR, should
per year. Evaluation of the visitation for the
be used in developing outdoor recreation pro-
intervening years reveals a study year-to-year
grams and projecting user demand.
increase, although the amount of increase, on
b. Projected visitation. One means of deter-
an annual basis, shows signs of tapering off in
mining projected visitation is to examine the
the most recent two to three-year period. As a
visitation data (described in para 4-5h) to es-
result, the outdoor recreation director decides
tablish trends in recreation use.
(1) Rate of change. Calculate the rate of
to estimate, conservatively, that visitation will
continue to increase at an average rate of 15
change in use of outdoor recreation areas and
facilities in terms of percent per year, over the
percent per year for the next five years. The es-
last five or 10-year period. This information can
timate of demand for camping is then obtained
by the following formula:
also be plotted on a graph to show whether use
has steadily increased, decreased or remained
stable. Once the pattern of use has been estab-
lished, attempt to define the reasons for the pat-
This figure is rounded to an estimate of 475,000
tern. The rate of growth of the user population
visits annually by the end of the forthcoming
five-year planning period.
is the most obvious reason for changes in rec-
reation use. However, other factors contribute
(b) For activities with no reliable use data
(including data with gaps) or for new activities,
and should be identified. This is particularly im-
modify current per capita participation rates and
portant if the user population demonstrates a
pattern different from that of recreation use.
multiply them by projected future user popu-
For example, if a steadily increasing pattern of
lation figures. If this approach is adopted, the
recreation use appears while the user popula-
SCORP usually has projections of future par-
tion remains stable or declines, other factors
ticipation rates for various outdoor recreation
are influencing the trend. Consider such factors
activities for the State and sometimes for coun-
a s : changes in population characteristics,
ties or regions within the state. For example,
changes in accessibility to recreation areas, im-
the market area population of Form U.S. is proj-
provement or decline in recreation areas and
ected to be 199,500 by the end of the five-year
facilities, unusually poor or favorable weather
planning period. The projected participation rate
derived from the SCORP for camping at the end
conditions over several seasons, increased fuel
of this period is 1.86. (A participation rate is an
costs, and changes in fee structure for entrance
into recreation areas. Determine whether these
estimate of per capita annual visitation; i.e., the
factors will continue to influence demand and
average number of times an individual in the
in the same way. Also attempt to anticipate new
market will participate in an activity in a year's
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