TM 5-803-12
sustained use at this level and continue to pro-
obtained, estimate use by reference to the per
vide a satisfying user experience. Implicit in this
capita participation rates in the most recent
assumption is the idea that use in accordance
SCORP.
with the standards will result in minimal impact
4-6. Demand.
on the natural environment. Differences in soils,
In recreation planning, the identification and
slope, microclimate, and other factors from site
evaluation of demand is an attempt to forecast
to site, however, often result in varying re-
future participation in outdoor recreation. Es-
sponses to the standards; hence the need to
monitor impacts closely and modify the stand-
timating recreation use is complex because it is
ards to the extent necessary to produce the de-
influenced by a multitude of factors including:
sired results at every site.
population, income, tastes, attitudes, leisure time,
(2) Sources. SCORPs, federal agencies, lo-
travel time, fuel prices, weather, competition,
cal parks and recreation departments, and pri-
promotion, and quality of recreation. That these
v a t e organizations representing various
factors and their influence change over time only
recreation activities provide guidelines for out-
increases the difficulty of forecasting.
door recreation standards. Another source is a
a. Methods. There are four basic methods for
nationwide survey of standards employed by state
estimating demand. Each method has limits"
parks and various government agencies titled,
tions associated with the difficulty in acquiring
"Guidelines for Understanding and Determin-
the necessary information or the reliability of
ing Optimum Recreation Carrying Capacity." The
the information obtained. See McGraw Hill pub-
lication Recreation Planning and Design for
standards were found to vary considerably from
state to state and agency to agency depending
general information concerning these methods.
upon a variety of factors, both physical and so-
(1) Standards. The most common method
cial. Consequently, the guideline report pre-
of estimating demand is the use of standards
sented a "baseline" standard, which was the most
based on a common denominator such as pop-
frequently used standard encountered in the
ulation or size of recreation market area. The
premise of the population-based standard is that
study, and then a range of values. The Morale
Welfare and Recreation Manager should eval-
if the number of people requiring recreation is
uate the baseline standard to determine if it is
known, the application of a general standard to
appropriate for his particular situation, and if
that number indicates the quantity and types of
not, should choose another value within the lim-
recreation which should be provided. However,
its of the range, based upon his planning objec-
population-based standards may not adequately
tives. Specific factors affecting the selection of
account for variations in population character-
an appropriate use standard are discussed at
istics and recreation areas. Although there are
length in the document.
a variety of published standards, the most aces-
h. Visitation. Determine current use or vis-
sible and pertinent are usually those listed in
itation.
the SCORP.
(1) On-post. Evaluate annual summaries of
(2) Projections. Projections estimate de-
visitation on file with the Physical Activities
mand on the basis of participation in existing
Branch. Examine visitation over the preceding
recreation. Use counts measure participation in
five-year period or if information is available,
a recreation area and are then extrapolated to
over the preceding 10-year period in order to
determine future demand. The simplest use count
infer trends in recreation use. If summaries are
is the traffic count which can be measured me-
not available, compile raw data from visitor
chanically or by personnel. Projections based only
counts and recreation surveys into a historical
on current use assume that the population will
record of use. Try to stratify data by activity and
continue to participate in recreation in the same
month or season. When neither annual sum-
numbers and manner in the future and that no
maries nor raw data is available, estimate vis-
new activities will be provided.
itation by comparison with similar recreation
(3) Models and formulas. Models and for-
areas or by reference to the per capita partici-
mulas attempt to consider factors other than
pation rates in the most recent SCORP. Multiply
population and participation. They consider var-
the installation user population by the per-cap-
iables in both population characteristics and
ita rate for each activity.
recreation areas. Models and formulas can proj-
(2) Off-post. If possible, obtain annual
ect demand for improved as well as new sites.
summaries of visitation for off-post recreation
An example of a commonly used formula for
within the market area. If this data cannot be
recreation planning is Bursley's Formula which
4-7
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