time. ) The estimate of future camping visitation
tended period of time without damaging the
is computed as follows: 1.88 x 199,500 = 375,060.
recreation resource (physical ) or experience
This figure is rounded to an estimated 375,000
visits annually by the end of the planning period.
a. Physical and social capacity. While recre-
The outdoor recreation director may wish to
ation standards are designed to some extent to
analyze the applicability of the SCORP rates to
acknowledge carrying capacity, most standards
the installation user population and alterna-
are based on the concept of the maximum use
tively derive installation-specific participation
a resource can withstand before physical dam-
rates from his own user population and use data.
age occurs. Differences in natural resources as
4-7. Selection of activities.
ing results in response to the standards. Factors
negatively affecting physical capacity include:
Base the selection of future recreation on a com-
soil erosion, air or water pollution, reduction or
parison of supply and demand. After completing
elimination of fish and wildlife populations, and
the computation for projected visitation, deter-
replacement of desirable vegetation with un-
mine the quantity of recreation areas and fa-
desirable species. Factors negatively affecting
cilities necessary to accommodate demand.
social capacity include: overcrowding, poor
a. Demand surplus/deficit. Compare current
maintenance, and poor aesthetic quality. The use
and projected visitation with the capacity of ex-
standards described in paragraph 4-5g for de-
isting recreation areas and facilities in the mar-
termining the capacity of existing areas and fa-
ket area as described in paragraph 4-5g.
cilities, as well as the Department of Interior
When the number for capacity is larger than
publication "Guidelines for Understanding and
or equal to the number for visitation, there is a
Determining Optimum Recreation Carrying Ca-
demand surplus. The existing supply is suffi-
pacity" can be used to determine the overall car-
cient to meet demand, and no additional areas
rying capacity of the installation. However, it is
or facilities are needed. When the number for
helpful to assess the optimal carrying capacity
capacity is smaller, there is a demand deficit and
of individual recreation areas and sites.
additional areas or facilities are needed.
b. Optimal capacity. To determine optimal
b. Installation needs. It is important to de-
carrying capacity for an area, consider both the
physical and social capacities. The potential en-
supplied by non-installation recreation in the
vironmental impacts of recreation use, the at-
market area and whether this is appropriate. If
titudes of potential recreation users, and the
an installation is remote, it may be appropriate
goals and objectives of the outdoor recreation
for all recreation to be supplied by the instal-
director should all be taken into account. Using
lation. If the installation market area provides
the analysis of existing conditions, evaluate ex-
a substantial number and variety of outdoor
isting, proposed and potential recreation areas
recreation opportunities, it may be disadvan-
to see if there should be modifications to the
tageous for the installation to compete with all
standards previously used to determine capacity
of the available outdoor recreation resources.
for each recreation activity. If there is a differ-
Determine and prioritize which outdoor recre-
ence, adjust previously determined capacities for
ation activities should be provided by the in-
recreation areas and facilities based on the re-
stallation. The ability of the installation to
vised standard. The standard may also be mod-
provide various recreation activities in terms of
i f i e d simply through observation of the
fiscal and natural resources and the accessibility
installation situation and the Morale Welfare
of public and private-sector market area rec-
and Recreation Manager's estimate of how this
reation in terms of time/distance and fee struc-
affects the standard.
tures are major influences on these decisions.
c. Summary of supply and demand. Figure 4-
4-9. Computation of facility needs.
4 shows an example for compiling information
obtained during the evaluation of supply and
There are a variety of published formulas for
demand and for providing a convenient basis of
computing facility needs. The judgement of the
comparison for determining demand surplus or
applicability of any formula to an individual in-
stallation should be based on the experience and
common sense of the Morale Welfare and Rec-
4-8. Carrying capacity.
reation Manager. For example, many formulas
Carrying capacity is the amount of use a rec-
are based on peak usage, or the greatest use a
reation area or facility can sustain over an ex-
facility is likely to receive at a given time. Peaks